Below is a general, non- definitive perspective—more of a “barstool talk” about interest rates rather than an official forecast. I’m not making any firm predictions or giving advice; this is just a blend of current market sentiment, economic patterns, and a bit of intuition.

1. The Fed’s Long-Run “Neutral” Rate

Historically, many economists believe the Fed’s “long-run” (or neutral) policy rate sits somewhere around 2.5%–3% (that’s pre-pandemic conventional wisdom). This neutral rate is where the Fed tries to be when inflation is on target (2%) and the economy’s growing at a lasting pace.
But if you think otherwise about it, the industry changes—pandemic disruptions, deglobalization trends, and government spending patterns all can nudge that equilibrium rate up or down over time.

2. The Market’s Current View (as of 2023–2024)

As of late 2023/early 2024, the Fed funds rate is above 5%. The Fed’s “dot plot” (which shows where Fed officials think rates will be in the coming years) suggests rates might eventually move lower, but how quickly they do so depends on inflation and economic conditions.
The give curve for longer maturities (like the 5-year or 10-year Treasury) was hovering anywhere between 3.5%–4.5% in 2023–2024, reflecting some uncertainty—markets see potential for rates to come down eventually, but not necessarily plummet.

3. Inflation Pressure and Macro Risks

If inflation persists (e.g., due to labor market tightness, supply chain frictions, or energy price shocks), the Fed may keep rates higher for longer.
Conversely, if inflation truly cools and economic growth slows, the Fed could ease rates toward that 2.5%–3% zone, or even dip below 2% in a recession scenario.
Global macro factors: High government debt levels, geopolitical tensions, demographics, etc. can each pull rates in different directions.

4. The Time Horizon: 2028

Five years can be an eternity in monetary policy. Over that time, we might see 1–2 cycles of rate hikes and cuts.
Typically (pre-COVID), it wasn’t unusual to see a Fed funds rate around 2%–3% for extended periods, especially if inflation was well-behaved.
It’s not outlandish to think that by 2028, the Fed’s rate could be below 4%—especially if the economy hits a soft patch or inflation returns to ~2% target.

But Is It “Likely?”

My best “barstool” guess: It’s quite plausible that by 2028 the Fed funds rate is under 4%. We’ve seen interest rates move above 5% now, but in the longer run, many folks still think we’ll drift back toward something in the 2.5%–3.5% corridor—unless structural inflation remains stubbornly high.
If the U.S. avoids massive supply shocks, inflation recedes, and we get into a classic mid-business-cycle environment, the Fed might see 3% (give or take) as a comfortable equilibrium. That’s below 4%.

5. Wild Cards

Stagflation scenario (high inflation + low growth) might push the Fed to keep rates high for longer.
Deep recession with deflationary forces might push rates well below 2% for a time.
Geopolitical or fiscal issues (e.g., large deficits, debt-limit controversies) could drive up long-term gives even if the Fed’s policy rate tries to go lower.
Technological shifts: Productivity lifts or big changes in energy/AI might alter inflation kinetics in unexpected ways.

Bottom Line (Gut Feeling)

Personally, I’d consider it more likely than not that by 2028, interest rates (at least the Fed funds rate) could be in the 2.5%–3.5% range, which is truth be told below 4%.
There’s no guarantee—plenty of scenarios could keep rates high—but with five years for economic conditions to evolve, I’d lean towards sub-4% being a strong possibility if inflation returns closer to target and the economy normalizes.

Again, this is not financial advice or an official forecast—just an informal sense of where rates might be headed over the longer term.