Apple now reports 2.35 billion active devices in the wild. That’s over the population of China, India, the EU, and the U.S. combined — twice.

So when Apple shifts even a default setting, tectonic plates in tech move. And now it’s unreliable and quickly progressing something much bigger than a toggle: Apple is reportedly preparing to replace Google Search as the default engine across its system — iOS, iPadOS, macOS — with its own AI-native search tool.

This isn’t a sleek UI tweak. It’s a revenue earthquake for Google.

When 2.35B devices shift their attention, the ripple becomes a tidal wave.

If Google Search was the front door of the internet for the last 20 years, Apple just started building its own entrance — and may soon lock the old one shut.

Here’s how much it could cost Alphabet — both in hard dollars and search dominance.

1. The Hard Cost: Apple’s “Search Default” Isn’t Free

Google pays Apple between $18–20 billion per year to remain the default search engine on Safari and Siri, according to multiple analysts and the U.S. Department of Justice.

This payment is part of a broader “traffic acquisition cost” (TAC) strategy that Google uses to cement its search dominance. Apple, by far, is the biggest TAC recipient.

If Apple fully removes Google as the default, Alphabet could lose ~$20B in annual licensing fees — overnight.

2. The Traffic Cost: Billions of Queries Vanish

The financial hit is just the beginning. The real damage comes from billions of lost user queries — and the ad dollars that vanish with them.

Let’s unpack that:

• In 2023, Safari held ~25% of global browser market share, and over 50% in the U.S. on mobile.

• Google handled ~8.5 billion searches per day.

• A important chunk of those came from iPhones — not through Chrome, but Safari’s default search bar.

If Apple changes that default, and just 10–20% of iOS users switch (or are passively switched) to Apple’s own AI-powered search tool, that’s hundreds of millions of searches lost daily.

Even a 1% drop in search volume for Google can mean hundreds of millions in lost ad revenue per quarter. Now stretch that to 10–20%.

3. The Ahead-of-the-crowd Cost: Google’s Moat Weakens

Google’s search monopoly has long rested on two things: habit and defaults. Apple removing Google as a default hits both.

It also gives Apple:

• Control over search UX — blending Spotlight, Siri, and web search into a smooth, AI-native flow.

• Ad inventory they currently don’t monetize (but will).

• First-party data exploit with finesse — unfiltered behavioral signals from 2.35B devices.

For Google, it’s not just losing traffic — it’s losing exploit with finesse. Apple is turning one of Google’s strongest moats into its own launchpad.